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2/25/2010 4:51:08 PM
Tories and Grits in virtual tie as Parliament set to resume
Toronto
As a new session of Parliament is about to begin, the federal Conservatives and Liberals are locked in a virtual dead heat, according to a new Environics poll released today. The Conservatives, with the support of 31 percent of decided voters, cling to a one-point lead over the opposition Liberals, who have the support of 30 percent of decided voters. This represents a seven-point drop in Conservative support and a four-point rise in Liberal support since the last election in October 2008.
Support for the NDP stands at 16 percent and support for the Green Party stands at 13 percent. Nine percent would vote for the Bloc Québécois nationally, which translates into 37-percent support in Quebec. Among all eligible voters, 17 percent are undecided about which party to vote for, or say they would not vote at all, or refuse to say who they would vote for.
Environics’ Senior Associate Derek Leebosh noted: “Perhaps the most interesting finding in this poll is the extent to which neither the government nor the official opposition are able to close the deal with Canadian voters. Almost four in ten voters are opting for alternatives to the two traditional major parties.”

Regional patterns
In Ontario, the Liberals now hold 38 percent of the vote compared to 33 percent for the Conservatives and 16 percent for the New Democrats. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads with 37 percent over the second place Liberals at 28 percent, while the NDP and the Conservatives trail with 12 percent each. The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta (47%) and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (53%). The Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (34%) are virtually tied in Atlantic Canada, with the New Democrats not far behind at 25 percent. In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 37 percent, while the New Democrats, Greens and Liberals are in a virtual three-way dead heat for second place.
For further information, please contact:
Derek Leebosh, Senior Associate – Environics Research Group
(416) 969-2817 derek.leebosh@environics.ca
Methodology
Results for this research are based on 1,001 telephone interviews with a random sample of Canadians aged 18 years and older who are eligible to vote. A sample of this size produces results considered accurate to within +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margins of error are larger for the regional sub-samples.
- Interviews were conducted between February 22-24, 2010.
Questions (English):
If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? [ROTATE PARTIES] the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, [Quebec Only] the Bloc Québécois, or the Green Party?
[If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be inclined to support?
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