6/16/2008 12:54:38 PM Provincial Party Support Here are the latest numbers from our national quarterly research on party support in the provinces. Ontario The Liberals are holding their lead over the Progressive Conservatives – but the gap has narrowed since December. The NDP continues in third place, and the Green Party is gaining. The Liberals remain ahead of the opposition parties, although their lead over the second-place Progressive Conservatives has declined for the second consecutive quarter. Liberal support now stands at four in ten (38%) among decided voters. This figure is down seven points from December 2007, and is slightly lower than their share of the popular vote in the October 2007 election. The Progressive Conservatives now receive the support of 30 percent of decided voters. This figure is four points lower than that found in December 2007, but still on par with their share of the popular voter in the October 2007 election. The New Democratic Party continues in third place, and its support has stabilized at 19 percent of decided voters, essentially unchanged from December 2007, and slightly above its share of the popular vote in the October 2007 election. Twelve percent of decided voters opt for the Green Party; this proportion is up 10 points from December 2007. This is the first time that the Green Party, previously a volunteered response, was read as an option for this question in FOCUS CANADA, and may account for the gain in support noted here. Eleven percent of eligible voters express no party preference. Quebec The Liberals and the Parti Québécois (PQ) remain tied, and support is up for the former. The ADQ has lost ground and continues in third place. Support for the Parti Québécois has stabilized this quarter and the party remains in a tie for first place with the Liberals. The PQ now has the support of 38 percent of decided voters, essentially unchanged from December 2007, but still 10 points higher than its share of the popular vote in the March 2007 election. The minority Liberal government has seen its support increase somewhat this quarter and they remain tied for first place with the PQ. Support for the Liberals stands at 38 percent, up six points from December 2007, and five points higher than its share of the popular vote in the March 2007 election. The Action Démocratique Quebec remains in third place but has lost ground this quarter. Its support now stands at 19 percent; this figure is down seven points from December 2007 and is 12 points lower than its share of the popular vote in the March 2007 election. Three percent of decided voters support Québec Solidaire and two percent support the Green Party. Fifteen percent of eligible voters indicate no party preference. British Columbia Support for the B.C. Liberals has declined this quarter, while that for the NDP has increased – and the two parties are now in a virtual tie for first place. Support for the third-place Green Party has levelled off. After holding steady for three consecutive quarters, support for the B.C. Liberals has declined and they are now virtually tied with the NDP. They now have the support of 37 percent of decided voters; this figure is down 11 points from December 2007, and is nine points lower than their share of the popular vote in the May 2005 election. Support for the NDP has rebounded after declining for two consecutive quarters, placing them in a virtual tie with the B.C. Liberals. It now has the support of 41 percent of decided voters, up 13 points from December 2007. Support for the NDP is now on par with its share of the popular vote in the 2005 election. The Green Party remains in third spot, and its support has levelled off after showing an increasing trend between June and December 2007. It now has the support of 17 percent of decided voters; essentially unchanged from December 2007. Support for the Green Party is eight points higher than its popular vote in the 2005 election. Five percent of decided voters opt for other minor parties. Seven percent of eligible voters indicate no party preference. Alberta The recently re-elected Progressive Conservatives return with an unprecedented 11th consecutive majority and just over half of the popular vote. Results of the current survey mirror those found in the election. On March 3, 2008, the Progressive Conservatives won a historical 11th consecutive majority government, winning 72 of 83 seats (a gain of 11 seats) and 53 percent of the popular vote. In the current survey, their support stands at 54 percent of decided voters, on par with the party’s share of the popular vote and essentially unchanged from the December 2007 survey. The Liberals remain well behind in second place, winning nine seats (a loss of 7 seats) with 26 percent of the popular vote. The current survey shows decided voter support is at 22 percent, on par with their share of the popular vote and essentially unchanged from the December 2007 survey. The NDP won two seats (a loss of 2 seats) and nine percent of the popular vote. Its support now stands at 10 percent, on par with its share of the popular vote and essentially unchanged from the December 2007 survey. In January, the Alberta Alliance Party (AAP) merged with the Wildrose Party to become the Wildrose Alliance Party (WAP). The newly formed WAP did not manage to win the seat previously held by the AAP, but it received seven percent of the popular vote in the March election. In the current survey, its support stands at 10 percent, on par with its share of the popular vote and similar to that found in the December 2007 survey. The Alberta Green Party, while not winning any seats, received five percent of the popular vote. Its support in the current survey stands at five percent, identical to its share of the popular vote in the March election. Nine percent of eligible voters indicate no party preference. Manitoba The gap between the governing NDP and the opposition Progressive Conservatives has grown this quarter, with gains for the former and losses for the latter. The Liberals are holding steady, far behind in third place. Support for the governing NDP has grown this quarter, further strengthening its first-place position. The party now receives 61 percent of decided voter support; this figure is up 12 points from December 2007 and up 17 from June 2007. Its support is also 13 points higher than its share of the popular vote in the May 2007 election. The Progressive Conservatives continue to lose ground – for the second consecutive quarter – and are now 37 points behind the NDP, with the support of 24 percent of decided voters. This figure is down 10 points from December 2007 and down 18 from October 2007. Their support is also 14 points lower than their share of the popular vote in the May 2007 election. Support for the third-place Liberals has been relatively stable for the past year. They now have the support of 15 percent of decided voters. This figure is essentially unchanged from December 2007 and is on par with their share of the popular vote in the May 2007 election. One percent of decided voters support other minor parties. Nine percent of eligible voters state no party preference. Saskatchewan Gains for the NDP this quarter put the party in a virtual tie with the recently elected Saskatchewan Party, while support for the Liberals holds steady. Five months into its mandate, the Saskatchewan Party (SP) government is finding itself being challenged by its closest rival, the NDP. The SP now has 46 percent of decided voter support, essentially unchanged from December 2007 and on par with the party’s share of the popular vote in the November 2007 election. The NDP has gained ground this quarter and now rivals the SP, within the margin of error for the survey. The NDP now has the support of 41 percent of decided voters, up eight points from December 2007 and on par with its share of the popular vote. The Liberals now have 10 percent of decided voter support, essentially unchanged from December 2007 and identical to their share of the popular vote. Four percent of decided voters now support the Green Party. Sixteen percent of eligible voters, up seven points from December 2007, express no party preference. The results presented in this report are drawn from a national survey conducted by telephone between March 13 and April 7, 2008 among a probability sample of 2,026 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample was stratified by region and by community size. The sample size and margin of error for each province addressed in this report are presented in the following table. The questions asked were: If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? [If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support? For more information, contact: Derek Leebosh, Senior Associate Environics Research Group Limited E-mail: Derek.leebosh@environics.ca [ Latest News Articles ]       [ View Past Articles ]