11/1/2007 12:13:57 PM Provincial Party Support Results / November 2007 Here are the latest numbers from our national quarterly research on party support in the provinces. Ontario The newly re-elected Liberals remain far ahead of the second-place Progressive Conservatives. The NDP continues in third place, but has seen its support increase since the October 2007 election. The Liberals are now well ahead of the opposition parties, and boast a 13-point lead over the second-place Progressive Conservatives. Their support now stands at over four in ten (44%) of decided voters. This figure is on par with their share of the popular vote in the October 10, 2007 election (shortly before the survey came out of field), but is four points higher than in June 2007. The Progressive Conservatives now receive the support of 31 percent of decided voters. This figure is on par with their share of the popular voter in the October election, but is down eight points from June 2007. The New Democratic Party continues in third place, but is the only party to see an increase in support since the election. The party now has the support of 22 percent of decided voters and this figure is five points higher than its share of the popular vote in the October election. Three percent of decided voters opt for the Green Party. Eleven percent of eligible voters express no party preference. Quebec The governing Liberals remain virtually tied in second-place with the ADQ, while the Parti Québécois (PQ) holds its first-place position, and has increased its lead over the two other parties. The Parti Québécois remains in first place, and has increased its lead over the Liberals and ADQ. The party now has the support of 41 percent of decided voters, up six points from June and 13 points higher than its share of the popular vote in the March 2007 election. Support for the Action Démocratique Quebec is statistically tied with that of the Liberals – at 29 percent – unchanged from June and on par with its share of the popular vote in the March election. Six months after the election, the minority Liberal government remains tied with the ADQ for second place in decided voter support. Its support stands at 24 percent, down four points from June and nine points lower than its share of the popular vote in the March election. Three percent of decided voters support Québec Solidaire and three percent support the Green Party. Fourteen percent of eligible voters indicate no party preference. British Columbia The B.C. Liberals remain in first place, with a somewhat larger lead over the second-place NDP. Support for the NDP has decreased somewhat, while that for the third-place Green Party holds steady. Support for the B.C. Liberals is holding steady, with the support of 47 percent of decided voters, essentially unchanged from June and on par with their share of the popular vote in the May 2005 election. After gaining ground last quarter, support for the second-place NDP has declined. It now has the support of 32 percent of decided voters, down five points from June, and 10 points lower than its popular vote in the 2005 election. The Green Party remains in third spot with the support of 17 percent of decided voters. This figure is up two points from June – back to the level found in March – and is eight points higher than its popular vote in the 2005 election. Four percent of decided voters, up four points from June, opt for other minor parties. Ten percent of eligible voters indicate no party preference. Alberta Party support in Alberta has remained fairly stable over the past quarter, with the Progressive Conservatives in first place, far ahead of the opposition parties. After declining considerably last quarter, support for the Progressive Conservatives has levelled off. Their support now stands at 53 percent of decided voters, essentially unchanged from June, but still six points higher than their popular vote in the November 2004 election. Support for the second-place Liberals is holding steady. They currently receive the support of 22 percent of decided voters; this figure is essentially unchanged from June, but is seven points lower than their popular vote in the 2004 election. Support for the NDP is unchanged this quarter, with the support of 11 percent of decided voters. This figure is on par with its popular vote in the 2004 election. The Alberta Alliance Party is also holding steady this quarter, remaining tied with the NDP for third place. It now receives the support of nine percent of decided voters, down two points from June. Fewer than one percent of decided voters – down from three percent in June –support the Green Party, while four percent (up 3 points) support other minor parties. Ten percent of eligible voters, up five points, indicate no party preference. Manitoba The party standings in Manitoba remain relatively stable over the past quarter. The NDP remains virtually tied with the Progressive Conservatives, with the Liberals in third-place. Five months into its third mandate, the NDP government remains virtually tied in voter support with the Progressive Conservatives. It now receives the support of 46 percent of decided voters in Manitoba, up two points from June and on par with its share of the popular vote in the May 2007 provincial election. The Progressive Conservatives are still essentially tied with the NDP, with the support of 42 percent of decided voters. This figure is essentially unchanged from June and is on par with their share of the popular vote in the May election. The Liberals remain in third place, with the support of 11 percent of decided voters. This figure is down four points from June but is still on par with their share of the popular vote in the May election. One percent of decided voters support the Green Party. Sixteen percent (up 7 points from June) of eligible voters state no party preference. Saskatchewan The 10-year-old Saskatchewan Party won the November 7 election to form a majority government. As of November 7, about three weeks after the current survey came out of field, Saskatchewan has a new government and premier. The Saskatchewan Party (SP) – a union between Liberal and Progressive Conservative MLAs formed 10 years ago, and lead by Brad Wall – won 38 seats and 51 percent of the popular vote; this is on par with the 50 percent of decided voter support it received in the current survey.1 The outgoing NDP won 20 seats and 37 percent of the popular vote; this proportion is also on par with the 36 percent of decided voter support found in the current survey. For the second election in a row, Liberal Leader David Karwacki lost in his own riding of Saskatchewan Meewasin. The Liberals won no seats and 10 percent of the popular vote; this proportion is identical to that found in the current survey. In the current survey, five percent of decided voters (up 5 points from June) supported other minor parties. Sixteen percent of eligible voters expressed no party preference. 1 Final seat results not final at the time of writing, pending a possible recount in the Meadow Lake riding. The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between September 17 and October 14, 2007 among a probability sample of 2,047 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The question wordings were: If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? [If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support? For more information, contact: Tony Coulson, Vice President Environics Research Group Limited E-mail: tony.coulson@environics.ca [ Latest News Articles ]       [ View Past Articles ]