5/18/2007 11:36:54 AM Provincial Party Support March 2007 Here are the latest numbers from our national quarterly research on party support in the provinces. Ontario The Liberals have lost ground for the second consecutive quarter - to the benefit of the NDP. Support for the Progressive Conservatives holds steady, but they are now in first place. After losing ground in the last quarter and finding themselves in a virtual tie with the Progressive Conservatives, support for the Liberals is down again. Their support now stands at one-third (33%) of decided voters, down six points from December 2006 and down nine from October 2006. This figure is also 18 points lower than in the December 2003 post-election survey. The Progressive Conservatives are holding steady but are now in the first-place position, with a five-point lead over the Liberals. They now receive the support of 38 percent of decided voters, essentially unchanged from December 2006, but 10 points higher than in the December 2003 post-election survey. Support for the New Democratic Party has rebounded this quarter after showing a downward trend during the latter half of 2006. It continues in third place and now has the support of 26 percent of decided voters, up five points from December 2006, and 11 points higher than in the October 2003 election. Two percent of decided voters opt for the Green Party. Eleven percent of eligible voters express no party preference. Quebec The current survey did not ask the party support questions in Quebec, as it was in field close to the provincial election in that province. On March 26, 2007, Quebecers elected a minority Liberal government, the first in almost 130 years. Jean Charest's Liberals captured 48 of 125 seats and 33 percent of the popular vote. The Action Démocratique Quebec won 41 seats and 31 percent of the popular vote, a huge surge for the party, which had only five seats when the election was called. The Parti Québécois ended up with 36 seats and 28 percent of the vote, the lowest level of popular support in decades and its smallest number of seats since 1989. British Columbia The governing B.C. Liberals have slipped somewhat in popularity this quarter, but are still in first place, with a sizeable lead over the second-place NDP. After posting gains in the last quarter, the B.C. Liberals have slid somewhat, but still have the support of about half - 48 percent - of decided voters. This figure is down four points from December 2006, but is on par with their share of the popular vote in the May 2005 election. The NDP is in second place, with the support of 31 percent of decided voters; this figure is essentially unchanged from December 2006, but 11 points lower than its popular vote in the 2005 election. The Green Party remains in third spot with the support of 18 percent of decided voters. This figure is up three points from December 2006, and is nine points higher than its popular vote in the 2005 election. Two percent of decided voters support other minor parties. Thirteen percent of eligible voters indicate no party preference. Alberta The governing Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a commanding lead over the opposition parties, with support for all parties holding steady since the last quarter. After rebounding to two-thirds of decided voters in the previous quarter, support for the Progressive Conservatives is holding steady, with 64 percent of decided voters. This figure is essentially unchanged from December 2006, but is 17 points higher than their popular vote in the November 2004 election. The second-place Liberals continue to hold steady, but are 43 points behind the Progressive Conservatives. They currently receive the support of 21 percent of decided voters; this figure is essentially unchanged from December 2006, but is eight points lower than their popular vote in the 2004 election. Support for the NDP is also essentially unchanged from the past quarter, and it now has the support of nine percent of decided voters. This figure is on par with its popular vote in the 2004 election. The Alberta Alliance Party continues in last place, with the support of four percent of decided voters; this figure is essentially unchanged from December. One percent of decided voters support other minor parties. Eight percent (down 8 points) of eligible voters indicate no party preference. Manitoba The governing NDP has seen a small gain this quarter, but is still in a virtual tie with the Progressive Conservatives; support for the Liberals is holding steady. The Progressive Conservatives have seen their support decline somewhat for the second consecutive quarter - but they remain in a virtual tie for first place with the NDP. They now have the support of 41 percent of decided voters, down three points from December 2006 and down eight from October 2006. However, this figure is still 19 points higher than the low point found in the June 2003 post-election survey. Support for the governing NDP has increased slightly this quarter, and they now have the support of 44 percent of decided voters in Manitoba. This figure is up four points from December 2006, but is 16 points lower than the peak found in the June 2003 post-election survey. Support for the Liberals is holding steady this quarter. They now have the support of 15 percent of decided voters, essentially unchanged from December 2006, and on par with their share of the popular vote in the June 2003 provincial election. No one says they would vote for other minor parties. Fourteen percent of eligible voters state no party preference. Saskatchewan The Saskatchewan Party remains in first place. Support for the governing NDP has declined, to the benefit of the third-place Liberals. After levelling off in the previous quarter, support for the Saskatchewan Party (SP) continues to hold steady this quarter. It receives the support of half (48%) of decided voters in the province; this figure is essentially unchanged from December 2006, but is nine points higher than its popular vote in the November 2003 election. After improving for two consecutive quarters, support for the second-place NDP has declined. Moreover, the gap between the governing NDP and the SP has more than doubled - from eight points in December to 19 points this quarter. The NDP currently has the support of 29 percent of decided voters, down nine points from December 2006, and now 15 points lower than its popular vote in the 2003 election. Support for the Liberals has increased - at the expense of the NDP - and they now receive the support of 21 percent of decided voters. This figure is up seven points from December 2006, and is seven points higher than their share of the popular vote in the 2003 election. One percent of decided voters support other minor parties. Sixteen percent of eligible voters express no party preference. The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between March 13 and April 3, 2007 among a probability sample of 2,030 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The question wordings were: If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? [If "Undecided" ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support? For more information, contact: Keith Neuman, Senior Vice President Environics Research Group Limited E-mail: keith.neuman@environics.ca [ Latest News Articles ]       [ View Past Articles ]