1/5/2007 11:14:04 AM Provincial Party Support Results December 2006 Here are the latest numbers from our national quarterly research on party support in the provinces. Ontario The Liberals have lost ground this quarter, while support for the Progressive Conservatives has improved, leaving the parties in a virtual tie for first place. After moving firmly into first place in October, support for the Liberals has slipped and they are now in a virtual tie with the Progressive Conservatives. Their support now stands at four in ten (39%) decided voters, down three points from October and 12 points lower than in the December 2003 post-election survey. The Progressive Conservatives have rebounded slightly and are now essentially tied for first place with the Liberals. They now receive the support of 37 percent of decided voters, up four points from October, and nine points higher than in the December 2003 post-election survey. Support for the New Democratic Party is showing a downward trend since June. It continues in third place and now has the support of 21 percent of decided voters. Its level of support is essentially unchanged from October but is six points lower than in June. However, its support is six points higher than in the October 2003 election. Three percent of decided voters opt for the Green Party. Twelve percent of eligible voters express no party preference. Quebec Support for the Parti Québécois has declined somewhat – to the benefit of the new Quebec Solidaire party. However, the PQ continues in first place, far ahead of the governing Liberals. Support for the Parti Québécois has declined somewhat over the past quarter, and now stands at under half (46%) of decided voters. This figure is down five points from October but is 13 points higher than its popular vote in the 2003 election. The Liberals continue to trail the PQ by a wide margin. Support for the Liberals now stands at 30 percent of decided voters, essentially unchanged from October but 16 points lower than their popular vote in the 2003 election. After showing a downward trend between October 2005 and March 2006, support for the Action Démocratique Quebec has shown a mixed pattern. It now gets the support of 16 percent of decided voters; this figure is up three points from October but is on par with its popular vote in the 2003 election. Five percent of decided voters say they would vote for the sovereigntist Quebec Solidaire party, a new party formed back in the spring; this figure is up three points from October. Another three percent of decided voters opt for minor parties. Fourteen percent (down 6 points) of eligible voters express no party preference. British Columbia The governing B.C. Liberals have posted gains this quarter, and now hold a 19-point lead over the NDP. The B.C. Liberals have strengthened their lead, and now have the support of 52 percent of decided voters. This figure is up seven points from October, and is six points higher than their share of the popular vote in the May 2005 election. The NDP is in second place, with the support of 33 percent of decided voters; this figure is down three points from October, and nine points lower than its popular vote in the 2005 election. The Green Party remains in third spot with the support of 15 percent of decided voters. This figure is essentially unchanged from October, and is six points higher than its popular vote in the 2005 election. None of the decided voters support other minor parties. Thirteen percent (up 4 points) of eligible voters indicate no party preference. Alberta The governing Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a commanding lead over the opposition parties, and their support has grown – at the expense of the NDP and the Alberta Alliance Party. After declining somewhat in October, support for the Progressive Conservatives has rebounded and they now have the support of 66 percent of decided voters. This figure is up nine points from October, and is 19 points higher than their popular vote in the November 2004 election. The second-place Liberals are holding steady, but are now 47 points behind the Progressive Conservatives. They currently receive the support of 19 percent of decided voters; this figure is unchanged from October but is 10 points lower than their popular vote in the 2004 election. Support for the NDP has declined over the past quarter, and it now has the support of eight percent of decided voters. This figure is down six points from October but on par with its popular vote in the 2004 election. The Alberta Alliance Party is now essentially tied with the NDP, with the support of five percent of decided voters, but this figure is down three points from October. Three percent say they would vote for other minor parties. Sixteen percent (up 5 points) of eligible voters indicate no party preference. Manitoba The Progressive Conservatives have lost ground this quarter – to the benefit of the Liberals – and they are now virtually tied with the governing NDP. The Progressive Conservatives have seen their support decline somewhat – to the point that they are now in a virtual tie for first place with the NDP. They now have the support of 44 percent of decided voters, down five points from October but 22 points higher than the low point found in the June 2003 post-election survey. Support for the NDP remains stable since the last quarter, with the support of 40 percent of decided voters in Manitoba. This figure is unchanged from October but is 20 points lower than the peak found in the June 2003 post-election survey. Support for the Liberals has rebounded and is back to the level found in June. They now have the support of 17 percent of decided voters, up six points from October and four points higher than their share of the popular vote in the June 2003 provincial election. No one says they would vote for other minor parties. Fourteen percent of eligible voters state no party preference. Saskatchewan The Saskatchewan Party remains in first place. Support for the governing NDP has grown, at the expense of the third-place Liberals. After declining in October, support for the Saskatchewan Party (SP) has leveled off this quarter. It continues to receive the support of under half (46%) of decided voters in the province; this figure is essentially unchanged from October but is seven points higher than its popular vote in the November 2003 election. The NDP remains in second place, but its support has improved for the second consecutive quarter. Moreover, the gap between the governing NDP and the SP continues to decline – from 13 points in October to eight points this quarter. The NDP currently has the support of 38 percent of decided voters, up seven points from October and up 14 from June, and now on par with its popular vote in the 2003 election. Support for the Liberals has declined and they now receive the support of 14 percent of decided voters. This figure is down 11 points from October but is on par with their share of the popular vote in the 2003 election. Two percent of decided voters opt for other minor parties. Seventeen percent of eligible voters express no party preference. The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between December 8 and 30, 2006 among a probability sample of 2,045 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The question wordings were: If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? [If "Undecided" ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support? For more information, contact: Keith Neuman, Senior Vice President Environics Research Group Limited E-mail: keith.neuman@environics.ca [ Latest News Articles ]       [ View Past Articles ]