2/17/2006 5:20:47 PM Provincial Party Support Here are the latest numbers from our national quarterly research on party support in the provinces. Ontario The Liberals’ lead over the Progressive Conservatives is holding since October. Support for the Liberals now stands at four in ten (42%) decided voters. This figure is unchanged from October 2005, and at its highest level in over a year, but is still nine points lower than in the December 2003 post-election survey. The Progressive Conservatives remain in second place, with support from 36 percent of decided voters. This figure is essentially unchanged from October 2005, and is on par with their popular support in the October 2003 election, but eight points higher than in the December 2003 post-election survey. The New Democratic Party remains in third place with support from 19 percent of decided voters. Their level of support has remained relatively stable since July 2005, and is four points higher than in the October 2003 election. Another three percent of decided voters opt for minor parties. Fifteen percent of eligible voters express no party preference. Quebec Support for the Parti Québécois has strengthened, and it now holds a 32-point lead over the governing Liberals. The current survey finds that almost six in ten (57%) of decided voters prefer the Parti Québécois, up eight points from October 2005. This figure is close to the high point reached in July 2004, and is 24 points higher than its popular vote in the 2003 election. Support for the Liberals has declined, after a slow climb over the previous two quarters, and now stands at 25 percent of decided voters. This figure is down five points from October 2005, and 21 points lower than their popular vote in the 2003 election. Support for the Action Démocratique Quebec is down three points to 16 percent of decided voters; this figure is still about par with its popular vote in the 2003 election, and 12 points lower than in March 2005. Another two percent of decided voters opt for minor parties. Sixteen percent of eligible voters express no party preference (down seven points from October 2005). British Columbia The B.C. Liberals have moved into first place ahead of the New Democrats, and their gains have come at the expense of both the New Democrats and the Green Party. The B.C. Liberals have regained their lead, and now have the support of 46 percent of decided voters. This figure is up six points from October 2005 and on par with their share of the popular vote in the May 2005 election. The NDP have slipped back into second place, and now has the support of 37 percent of decided voters, down three points from October and five points lower than its popular vote in the 2005 election. The Green Party continues in third place with 13 percent of decided voter support, down four points from October, but still four points higher than its popular vote in the 2005 election. Five percent of decided voters support other minor parties. Nineteen percent of eligible voters indicate no party preference (up 11 points from October 2005). Alberta The Progressive Conservatives have increased their lead over the Liberals, with support for the latter down over the past quarter. The Progressive Conservatives continue to have the support of 53 percent of decided voters, unchanged from October 2005, but six points higher than their popular vote in the November 2004 election. The second-place Liberals have seen a reversal of last quarter’s gains and now have the support of 25 percent of decided voters. This figure is down seven points from October 2005, and four points lower than their popular vote in the 2004 election. The NDP is in third place with 10 percent of decided voter support, essentially unchanged from October 2005, and similar to that found in the 2004 election. Eleven percent say they would vote for the Alberta Alliance Party (down 2 points from July 2005). Two percent say they would vote for other minor parties. Nineteen percent of eligible voters, up 10 points from October 2005, indicate no party preference. Manitoba The gap between the governing NDP and the Progressive Conservatives has narrowed, with support for the latter on the rebound, at the expense of the Liberals. More than four in ten (45%) of decided Manitoba voters continue to support the New Democrats; this proportion is up two points from October 2005, but 15 points lower than the peak found in the June 2003 post-election survey. Support for the Progressive Conservatives has rebounded after declining noticeably in the previous quarter. They now have the support of 40 percent of decided voters, up nine points from October and 18 points higher than the low point found in the June 2003 post-election survey. The Liberals have lost ground this quarter, and now have the support of only 15 percent of decided voters. This figure is down seven points from October, but about par with their share of the popular vote in the June 2003 provincial election. Seventeen percent of eligible voters state no party preference (up 5 points from October 2005 and 11 from July 2005). Saskatchewan The Saskatchewan Party remains in first place, but its lead over the NDP has narrowed over the past quarter as support for the latter is on the rebound. Just under half (47%) of decided voters in the province now support the Saskatchewan Party (SP), down four points from October 2005, but still eight points higher than its popular vote in the November 2003 election. Still in second place but gaining on the SP is the NDP, who now have the support of 39 percent of decided voters. This figure is up 10 points from October 2005, but five points lower than its popular vote in the 2003 election. The provincial Liberals now enjoy the support of only 12 percent of decided voters, down six points from October 2005 and about par with their share of the popular vote in the 2003 election. Two percent of decided voters opt for other minor parties. Eighteen percent of eligible voters express no party preference (down 4 points from October 2005). The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between December 10 and 30, 2005 among a probability sample of 2,044 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The question wordings were: If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? For more information, contact: Keith Neuman, Senior Vice President Environics Research Group Limited E-mail: keith.neuman@environics.ca [ Latest News Articles ]       [ View Past Articles ]