2/2/2001 12:02:26 PM Liberals Enjoy Election Victory Honeymoon Sample of decided eligible voters Two months after winning their third consecutive majority government, the most recent FOCUS CANADA survey finds that the Liberals have increased their Election Day standing by four points to 45 percent of decided voters, while support for the rival Canadian Alliance has dropped by two points, from 25 percent to 23 percent. The Progressive Conservatives (11%, -1 point) and The Bloc Quebecois (8%, -3 points) have also experienced marginal declines in their support, while support for the New Democratic Party (10%, +1 point) is up marginally since November 27, 2000. One in ten eligible voters (12%) are undecided about their vote intention at this time. Voter indecision is currently the highest in Quebec (18%) and Manitoba (18%) and lowest in Alberta (7%) and Ontario (8%). Three percent of eligible voters suggest they would vote for a party other than one of the five major federal political parties. The “honeymoon period” for the Liberals is clearly in effect. Looking at the regional results, we find that support for the Liberals has increased in every region, except Quebec, since their victory in November. The Liberals receive a majority of support from decided voters in Atlantic Canada (51%); a dramatic increase of 10 points since Election Day. On the other hand, the Progressive Conservatives have seen their support in this region drop by eight points to 23 percent. Support for the NDP (15%, -2 points) has declined marginally while support for Canadian Alliance (10%) in this region remains unchanged from late November. The Liberals currently enjoy a lead of seven points over the Bloc Quebecois among decided voters in Quebec. However, support for the Liberals (42%, -2 points) and Bloc Quebecois (35%, -5 points) has declined from Election Day. Support for the Liberals is strongest in the Montreal Urban Community, where they enjoy the support of 44 percent of decided voters, in comparison with 31 percent for the Bloc Quebecois. Declining support for the Liberals and the BQ have mainly benefited the NDP (7%, +5 points). Liberal support remains the strongest in Ontario (56%), especially in Toronto (59%). Support for the Liberals in Ontario has grown by 5 points since their election victory on November 27, 2000. Canadian Alliance fortunes in this province have dropped by five points to 19 percent. Support for the PCs (-1 point to 14%) and the NDP (+1 point to 9%) has remained relatively stable. The Prairies continue to be a Canadian Alliance stronghold. While the Liberals receive the support of a plurality of decided voters in Manitoba (up three points to 36%) the Canadian Alliance is a close second in the province with 32 percent support, up two points from November. The increase in support for the Liberals and the Canadian Alliance in Manitoba has come at the expense of both the NDP (- 2 points to 19%) and the PCs (- 3 points to 12%). Despite a decline in their support, the Canadian Alliance maintain their lead in Saskatchewan with the support of 45 percent of decided voters; this represents a decrease of three points from the Federal Election. Liberal fortunes have increased significantly in the province since late November. One-third of decided Saskatchewan voters (31%, up 10 points) currently support the Liberals. Liberal gains have hurt the NDP, which have seen their support fall by 11 points to 17%. PC support (6%, up 1 points) is essentially unchanged since the Election. The Liberals appear to be experiencing the “honeymoon effect” in Alberta as well. Liberal support has increased by nine points to 30% since the November Election. Despite a large drop of 13 points, the Canadian Alliance is still the preferred electoral choice among a plurality of decided Alberta voters (46%). Support for the PCs (+1 point to 14%) and the NDP (unchanged at 6%) has remained relatively stable. Although they remain the favoured choice voters in British Columbia, the trend of decreasing support for the Canadian Alliance can also found in this province. The Canadian Alliance receives the support of 45 percent of decided voters in the province; a decline of five points from November 27, 2000. This decline has mainly benefited the Liberals (up two points to 30%) and the NDP (up four points to 15%). 30 - For further information, please contact: Chris Baker Vice President, Environics Research Group (613) 230-5089 chris_baker@environics.ca Methodology These results are taken from the FOCUS CANADA Survey, Canada’s longest running opinion quarterly on politics and public policy issues. These results are based on 2,114 interviews with adult Canadians conducted between December 22, 2000 and January 15, 2001. When speaking nationally, these results are accurate to within +/-2.2 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The questions asked were: If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for [ROTATE PARTIES] the Liberal Party, the Progressive Conservative Party, the Canadian Alliance, the New Democratic Party, or [Quebec Only] the Bloc Quebecois? [If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be inclined to support? In French, these questions were: Si des élections générales avaient lieu aujourd'hui, pour lequel des partis suivants voteriez-vous? [LECTURE ET ROTATION] Le Parti libéral, Le Parti progressiste-conservateur, Le Nouveau Parti démocratique, L'Alliance canadienne, ou (Québec seulement) Le Bloc Quebecois? 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